Coinbase Is Still Down 23% in the Past Month: Did Today Mark the Bottom for COIN Stock?

Key points

• Coinbase reported Q3 2026 revenue of $1.22 billion, flat QoQ but down 35% YoY, with transaction revenue sliding 44% YoY to $590 million; core profitability was skewed by $715 million gains on crypto holdings, leaving adjusted net income at $77.7 million.
• The downturn followed a record Binance hack and a drop in Bitcoin prices, which pressured overall trading activity on Coinbase and across crypto venues.
• Goldman Sachs identified Coinbase as well-positioned to capture users leaving Binance, noting a rising crypto trading share and higher USDC stablecoin income that could support earnings even if trading slows.
• Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to Underweight with a $120 target, citing deteriorating confidence in an earnings recovery and lower projected Q4 2026 transaction revenue; peers have also trimmed 2027 earnings estimates.
• The main risk to bulls is whether trading volumes can recover; investors are watching for improved spot trading, continued market share gains, and stablecoin revenue resilience as catalysts for a sustained improvement.
• The February 3, 2027 earnings date remains unconfirmed by Coinbase, and the ongoing macro backdrop—rates and inflation—adds another layer of uncertainty to crypto stocks.
• If weak trading and falling crypto prices persist, bears’ case strengthens; if spot volumes rebound and stablecoin income holds, the stock could re-rate higher as part of a broader crypto recovery.