Nvidia Stock Just Had Its Price Target Slashed 60%. Others Still Say Buy. Who's Right?

Key points

• Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral and cut the price target to 200, driven by expected 2027 data center forecast reductions due to ongoing supply constraints, with cloud-company spending growth seen at around 40% in 2027 and potential demand softening.
• The downgrade also notes uncertainty around Jensen Huang’s tenure after a board investigation into a possible foreign intel‑related influence, coupled with Nvidia warning that its long-standing executive team is critical to operations.
• Morgan Stanley removed Nvidia from its top picks on a rule-based threshold after the stock fell more than 25% from the designation date, but maintained an Overweight rating and a 300 target, keeping a positive view on AI deployment while acknowledging near-term uncertainty.
• Wells Fargo also published a 300 target, trimming slightly, and expects solid earnings that could reassure investors about the durability of the AI cycle.
• Nvidia’s latest quarterly results show revenue rising 106% to 96.2 billion and data center sales reaching 89 billion, with a guided next-quarter revenue of about 108 billion assuming no China data center sales.
• The market reaction was muted-to-positive, with Nvidia hovering near 177 as AI stocks rallied, despite substantial distance from its record high, highlighting a debate over the stock’s fair value amid supply risks and governance concerns.
• Looking ahead to the November 17 earnings release, investors will scrutinize the forecast, supply commentary, and any updates on the leadership investigation, which could swing sentiment and influence whether today’s price proves attractive or requires patience.